Gold is reshaping the economics of Australian mining. With prices forecast to range from US$4,000 to US$5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, the sector is unlocking stronger margins, faster investment, and greater export returns. Profitability is rising. Project pipelines are growing. Workforce demand is surging especially in gold-dominant states like Western Australia and New South Wales. 

But with higher returns come higher risks. Volatility, cost inflation, and capital missteps remain top concerns. This is not just a boom. It is a pressure test for strategy, performance, and long-term discipline. 

Rising prices are unlocking record profit margins 

Gold prices are tracking toward US$4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan in their June 2025 Global Research Report. This surge is lifting profitability across Australia’s gold sector. With all-in sustaining costs (AISC) averaging AU$1,700 per ounce, current price levels deliver cash margins of over AU$4,300 per ounce. This is nearly double the levels seen in 2024. 

Mid-tier miners with leaner operations are capitalising fastest. Regis Resources, for example, ended FY25 with AU$517 million in cash and bullion, up from a net-debt position just a year earlier. The company generated AU$662 million in operating cash flow since December 2023 and is now fully debt-free. This underscores how operational leverage is converting higher prices into financial strength. More miners are following suit, strengthening balance sheets and accelerating growth plans. 

The bullish outlook is reinforced by JPMorgan’s latest forecast. In a note released in late October sourced by industrial experts, the bank projected gold to average US$5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, based on expectations that investors and central banks will continue to accumulate around 566 tonnes per quarter. Strategists at JPMorgan are also targeting US$6,000 per ounce by 2028, emphasising a long-term horizon for the rally. While gold has recently retreated from its all-time high of US$4,380 per ounce, it remains above US$4,100 and is up 58% for the year. This sustained margin expansion is already feeding into stronger national revenue and fiscal returns. 

Gold exports are driving national revenue growth 

 Export earnings from gold are forecast to reach AU$35 billion in 2025-26, as reported by economists from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). This represents a significant lift from the AU$34 billion recorded in 2024-25. The increase is being driven by higher prices and modest production growth. Together, these trends will contribute around 0.5% to Australia’s nominal GDP. 

Furthermore, the report states that Western Australia, the nation’s gold powerhouse, accounts for 70% of national output. It is expected to deliver AU$25 billion in exports and AU$500 million in royalties, strengthening federal and state revenues and reinforcing gold’s strategic economic value. 

Il Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ September 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly reported that gold export earnings are forecast to AU$60 billion in 2025-26 and 2026-2027. This is driven by record gold prices exceeding US$3,600 per ounce in September 2025 and a projected 0.5% increase in export volumes, significantly contributing to national export revenue growth. 

These export gains are also fuelling faster investment decisions and unlocking a wave of new projects. 

High prices are fast-tracking new projects and production 

Australia’s gold production is forecast to grow from 289 tonnes in 2024 to 309 tonnes in 2025-26 as outlined in the Resources and Energy Quarterly: September 2025 report. This expansion is being fuelled by AU$2.9 billion in committed projects, many of which have been brought forward thanks to high market prices. 

Key projects include De Grey Mining’s Hemi Gold Project, expected to produce 553,000 ounces annually by 2026, and McPhillamys in New South Wales, targeting 200,000 ounces per annum by 2028.  

As production scales up, so does the demand for skilled labour and infrastructure in mining regions. 

Workforce demand is rising across WA and NSW 

The gold boom is fuelling a surge in job creation across Australia’s mining states. The Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association (AREEA) 2025 to 2030 Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast projects that 96 mining and energy projects will create 22,279 new jobs by 2030, representing 7% workforce growth. Gold alone accounts for 16 of those projects, set to come online between 2026 and 2028. 

Western Australia is leading the expansion. The state has 27 new projects requiring 9,000 workers, including 11 gold-focused developments. Among them, the Hemi Gold Project is expected to create 1,700 jobs during construction and operations, according to Minister for Resources Madeleine King. 

In 2024, WA’s gold mining workforce grew by approximately 3,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) positions that reached 33,285 total FTEs. This brought total mining employment in the state to a record 135,693 FTEs, with gold now representing around a quarter of the sector. 

New South Wales is also gaining momentum. The state has 11 active projects projected to require 3,200 workers by 2026. Gold production in NSW was valued at AU$4.2 billion in 2024-25, supporting local economies, strengthening infrastructure, and attracting further regional investment. 

Favourable exchange rates are amplifying these returns further. 

Australia’s gold sector is entering a new high-price cycle

The surge in gold prices, exceeding US$4,000 per ounce in October 2025, marks the onset of a transformative high-price cycle for Australia’s gold sector, positioning it as a cornerstone of economic resilience.  

Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and trade disputes, coupled with persistent inflation fears, are driving robust demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. This confluence of factors not only elevates gold’s value but also underscores its role as a hedge against economic volatility, offering Australia a unique opportunity to capitalize on its position as the world’s third-largest gold producer.  

However, the sector must navigate potential price volatility to sustain long-term growth, requiring strategic foresight to balance investment in new projects with cost discipline. 

Despite this volatility, precious metals, particularly gold, remain pivotal to Australia’s export value, contributing AU$60 billion in 2025-26, as noted in the Resources and Energy Quarterly: September 2025, reinforcing their strategic importance to the national economy. 

This momentum is building a platform for long-term growth. 

Key outcomes expected by 2026 

By 2026, the impacts of sustained high gold prices are expected to be significant: 

• Profitability: With gold forecast to range from US$4,000 to US$5,055 per ounce, miners are achieving margins of AU$4,300 per ounce. Companies like Regis Resources have strengthened their positions, turning net-debt into over AU$517 million in cash and bullion. 

• Export Revenue: Gold export earnings are projected to reach between AU$35 billion and AU$60 billion in 2025–26. This growth is driven by high prices and a projected 0.5% increase in export volumes, contributing around 0.5% to nominal GDP. 

• Production Growth: National output is forecast to rise from 289 tonnes in 2024 to 309 tonnes in 2025–26, with longer-term targets of 400 tonnes by 2030. Major projects like Hemi and McPhillamys are driving this growth. 

• Employment: Workforce demand is rising, with 96 new resources projects expected to add over 22,000 jobs by 2030. WA alone added 3,000 FTE gold mining jobs in 2024, reaching 33,285. 

• Currency Advantage: With the Australian dollar projected at US$0.665, local gold revenues are seeing a 15-20% uplift in AUD terms, supporting stronger cash positions. 

• Risks: Sustained high costs (AISC reaching US$1,456/oz), price corrections, and investment discipline will remain key pressure points for the sector’s long-term success. 

Miners are positioned for growth, but discipline is critical 

The opportunity is clear. Miners who act deliberately in this cycle will strengthen cash flows, scale operations, and sharpen their competitive edge. But the risks are real. Overextension, reactive spending, or underestimating inflation could erode long-term value. 

To capitalise effectively, miners must focus on four priorities: 

1. Operational control – Streamline cost structures. Reduce exposure to wage and energy volatility. Adopt modular designs and flexible planning.
2. Capital discipline – Invest in high-return, low-risk projects. Avoid speculative acquisitions. Allocate cash based on long-term margin potential.
3. Workforce capability – Secure skilled labour through upskilling and regional engagement. Minimise downtime with retention and training programs. 
4. Technology integration – Use AI, automation, and data to improve exploration, reduce waste, and boost output efficiency. 

These levers will define who thrives and who stalls. Partnering with the right team who understands operational risk, performance delivery, and future-focused innovation can accelerate that advantage. This is a pivotal moment for gold. The best miners will lead with discipline, agility, and a performance mindset. 

Mining is entering a defining decade where standing still is falling behind. Global operations are under pressure. But within that pressure lies potential. 

Complexity, not just geology, is now the sector’s top defining risk. Success no longer comes from resource access alone but also on system performance, sustainability, and resilience. 

Every risk in mining carries the seed of opportunity. In Australia, where operational demands collide with world-class regulation, the opportunity to set a new global benchmark is real. Mines that can streamline operations, optimise performance, and adapt faster will capture long-term value. 

According to the EY Top 10 Business Risks and Opportunities survey, the industry’s focus has shifted toward operational challenges amid surging demand for critical minerals. Insights from 500 senior mining and metals executives worldwide, including 60 from Australia, indicate the sector’s sharp pivot away from external and strategic issues to short-term operational factors impacting productivity and costs.

The top 10 business risks for mining.

1. Operational complexity 

As mines deepen and orebodies become more complex, operational challenges intensify. Declining ore grades, aging infrastructure, and variable output due to adverse weather and geometallurgical variability increase costs and disrupt productivity. In Australia, remote mines like those in the Pilbara face additional complexities from harsh climates and logistical constraints, making efficient operations critical.

2. Rising costs and productivity 

Persistent high energy, labor, and input costs strain profitability. The need to improve productivity is urgent, as miners face pressure to deliver consistent output while managing escalating expenses. High labor costs and energy-intensive operations in Australia exacerbate this risk, particularly for coal and iron ore producers.

3. Capital allocation 

Miners balance reinvestment with shareholder expectations. With large-scale mergers challenging, companies are shifting from shareholder payouts to funding exploration and operational upgrades.  

4. Resource & reserve depletion 

Depletion is driven less by scarcity and more by declining ore quality and underinvestment in extraction. Global exploration spending fell to US$12.5 billion in 2024, despite an estimated US$5.4 trillion in investment needed by 2035 to meet demand. In Australia, many Tier 1 deposits are mature, and new discoveries often sit in deeper, more complex or environmentally sensitive areas. 

5. License to Operate (LTO) 

Growing community expectations and resource nationalism require miners to build trust beyond regulatory compliance. Reduced government spending in some regions increases reliance on corporate social responsibility. In Australia, Indigenous community partnerships and stringent ESG regulations make LTO critical for project approvals and social capital. 

6. Workforce shortages 

A worsening skills crisis, with over 50% of the US and Canadian mining workforce expected to retire within a decade and a 10% workforce increase needed in Australia for over 100 new projects, threatens productivity and safety. Skills gaps in engineering, sustainability, and mine planning are particularly acute in Australia’s remote regions.

 7. Geopolitics 

Surging demand for minerals in defence, energy and tech is driving governments to tighten control over supply chains. Tariffs, export restrictions, and trade policy shifts disrupt critical mineral supply chains. Carbon pricing is also expanding. As climate impacts grow, these measures could reshape trade and investment decisions. 

8. Digital innovation 

Digital transformation is accelerating as mining companies seek to improve cost control, safety, and sustainability in a more complex operating environment. According to EY, one in five miners plans to increase AI investment by over 20% in the next year. Agentic AI is emerging as a transformative force, with the potential to extend human capability and unlock deeper operational insights. However, many digital initiatives still struggle to deliver ROI due to siloed data and misalignment with core business needs. 

In Australia, 55% of mining executives plan to increase AI investment. EY Regional Mining & Metals Leader (Oceania) Michael Rundus stated that digital transformation is the top capital priority for the sector, laying out the groundwork for long-term growth. 

9. Sustainability 

Confidence in achieving nature-positive goals has declined, with only 56% of executives optimistic. Pressures to reduce emissions, manage water, and restore biodiversity are intensifying, particularly in Australia, where environmental regulations are stringent and Indigenous land management expertise is vital. 

10. Evolving business models 

Miners are shifting toward vertical integration and circular economy practices to capture value across the supply chain. Investments in smelting and recycling offer opportunities for cleaner products and decarbonization. This trend aligns with the push for sustainable mining and premium critical mineral exports in Australia. 

Mitigating the risks through a strategic response. 

Navigating the risks reshaping mining requires more than reactive fixes. These are complex, interconnected challenges that span operations, environment and workforce systems. A strategic response demands system-level thinking, integrated design and a long-term focus on performance and accountability. 

The following strategic focus areas reflect how risk can be actively mitigated across core parts of the mining business: 

1. Streamlining operational systems to reduce complexity 

Operational complexity is often the result of disjointed systems, overlapping responsibilities, and ageing infrastructure. A strategic response involves rethinking how critical site systems, such as energy, ventilation, noise control and water management, function together. Consolidating these through engineered, modular solutions allows for simplified maintenance, better asset visibility and reduced downtime exposure. 

2. Embedding data intelligence in decision cycles

Siloed data is a hidden risk. Without system-wide visibility, mines struggle to forecast issues, track compliance or justify investment. A strategic response involves establishing unified data environments, connecting physical infrastructure with real-time monitoring, smart sensors and control systems. 

3. Operationalising environmental performance
 Sustainability is no longer a separate initiative. It must be embedded in operational workflows. A strategic response means shifting from reactive compliance to proactive environmental control. That includes managing noise emissions, water discharge, dust and air quality at the point of impact. 

4. Designing for workforce efficiency and self-sufficiency
 Labour constraints and capability gaps cannot be solved by recruitment alone. A strategic response involves redesigning operational systems for low-touch, high-efficiency performance. This includes remote operability, lower maintenance demand and intuitive operation.

5. Engineering for resilience and regulatory readiness

Strategic risk management means building systems that not only work today, but evolve with tomorrow’s standards. A proactive approach involves investing in infrastructure that is modular, regulation-ready and adaptable across different sites or conditions. 

Each of these strategic responses helps transform risk into operational advantage. By rethinking systems, aligning data, embedding compliance and designing for efficiency, mining operations can move beyond mitigation. They can achieve measurable performance gains. 

What high-performance mining demands now.

When heavy assets are running and output targets are tight, every minute of uptime counts. System failures stall production, disrupt supply chains, and compound pressure on already stretched crews. For years, many in the mining and energy sector have accepted this as the cost of doing business, navigating complexity with ageing infrastructure, disjointed systems, and reactive fixes. But the ground is shifting. 

The risks outlined in this report are not abstract. They show up in real, everyday ways. An underground fan runs below capacity. A dam nears overflow limits. A haul truck breaches noise thresholds and halts night operations. These are the moments where margins shrink, compliance cracks, and credibility is tested. 

Minetek is built for these realities. 

For over 30 years, we’ve worked alongside mining operators who face these pressures daily. Our mine site technologies don’t just solve problems. They reframe what’s possible by giving operators more control, more certainty, and more room to perform. 

Optimising safety and energy efficiency through advanced underground ventilation.

Effective airflow underground is non-negotiable. Poor airflow management slows re-entry, increases energy use and puts workers at risk. Minetek provides a precise, high-performance approach to airflow control across all underground operations.  

 Il nostro ventilation solutions include primary, secondary and booster fans engineered for the harshest conditions. High-Output Axial Fans triple the pressure of conventional units, allowing for longer duct runs and fewer installations. With Performance On Demand (POD) technology, operators can control airflow where and when it’s needed.  

 This combination of precision, power and adaptability helps mining operations meet safety standards, manage costs, and improve operational flexibility underground. 

Supporting mineral extraction via sustainable water management solutions.

Water presents both operational risk and regulatory pressure. When poorly managed, it becomes a serious operational liability, leading to environmental breaches, financial penalties and strained community relations. Minetek provides a cost-effective, sustainable approach to water management across the full lifecycle of a mine.  

Il nostro mechanical evaporation systems provide scalable, high-efficiency water management. They are designed for harsh conditions and can handle pit water, process discharge and acid mine drainage. These systems operate without chemicals and significantly reduce reliance on conventional treatment or storage, cutting water management costs by up to ten times.  

By helping operators manage water sustainably, Minetek strengthens site compliance, resilience and production continuity. 

Protecting workers and earning community trust through noise suppression

Excessive noise is a major challenge in mining. It affects worker safety, breaches regulatory limits and strains community relations. Minetek provides proven noise control systems. These systems reduce equipment noise without compromising performance, allowing the site to operate 24/7. 

Il nostro sound attenuation solutions lower sound output by up to 50% while maintaining full operational efficiency. More than 1,500 machines from over 90 OEMs have been successfully fitted with M-STEALTH™ system tailored to site-specific requirements. 

By helping operators manage sound at the source, Minetek improves workforce safety, supports social licence and ensures regulatory compliance across operations. 

Shaping what’s next in mining.
The next decade in mining will be defined by how well operators manage risk while driving performance. As complexity increases, success will belong to those who can integrate systems, respond with agility and maintain control under pressure. 

Minetek partners with operators to deliver that control. Across underground ventilation, water management and sound attenuation, our solutions are proven to perform in the most demanding conditions. We help operations stay compliant, productive and future-ready. 

In a sector where standing still means falling behind. Minetek helps shape what’s next.