Gold’s rally redefining profitability & production in Australian mining

Gold is reshaping the economics of Australian mining. With prices forecast to range from US$4,000 to US$5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, the sector is unlocking stronger margins, faster investment, and greater export returns. Profitability is rising. Project pipelines are growing. Workforce demand is surging especially in gold-dominant states like Western Australia and New South Wales. 

But with higher returns come higher risks. Volatility, cost inflation, and capital missteps remain top concerns. This is not just a boom. It is a pressure test for strategy, performance, and long-term discipline. 

Rising prices are unlocking record profit margins 

Gold prices are tracking toward US$4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan in their June 2025 Global Research Report. This surge is lifting profitability across Australia’s gold sector. With all-in sustaining costs (AISC) averaging AU$1,700 per ounce, current price levels deliver cash margins of over AU$4,300 per ounce. This is nearly double the levels seen in 2024. 

Mid-tier miners with leaner operations are capitalising fastest. Regis Resources, for example, ended FY25 with AU$517 million in cash and bullion, up from a net-debt position just a year earlier. The company generated AU$662 million in operating cash flow since December 2023 and is now fully debt-free. This underscores how operational leverage is converting higher prices into financial strength. More miners are following suit, strengthening balance sheets and accelerating growth plans. 

The bullish outlook is reinforced by JPMorgan’s latest forecast. In a note released in late October sourced by industrial experts, the bank projected gold to average US$5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, based on expectations that investors and central banks will continue to accumulate around 566 tonnes per quarter. Strategists at JPMorgan are also targeting US$6,000 per ounce by 2028, emphasising a long-term horizon for the rally. While gold has recently retreated from its all-time high of US$4,380 per ounce, it remains above US$4,100 and is up 58% for the year. This sustained margin expansion is already feeding into stronger national revenue and fiscal returns. 

Gold exports are driving national revenue growth 

 Export earnings from gold are forecast to reach AU$35 billion in 2025-26, as reported by economists from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). This represents a significant lift from the AU$34 billion recorded in 2024-25. The increase is being driven by higher prices and modest production growth. Together, these trends will contribute around 0.5% to Australia’s nominal GDP. 

Furthermore, the report states that Western Australia, the nation’s gold powerhouse, accounts for 70% of national output. It is expected to deliver AU$25 billion in exports and AU$500 million in royalties, strengthening federal and state revenues and reinforcing gold’s strategic economic value. 

En Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ September 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly reported that gold export earnings are forecast to AU$60 billion in 2025-26 and 2026-2027. This is driven by record gold prices exceeding US$3,600 per ounce in September 2025 and a projected 0.5% increase in export volumes, significantly contributing to national export revenue growth. 

These export gains are also fuelling faster investment decisions and unlocking a wave of new projects. 

High prices are fast-tracking new projects and production 

Australia’s gold production is forecast to grow from 289 tonnes in 2024 to 309 tonnes in 2025-26 as outlined in the Resources and Energy Quarterly: September 2025 report. This expansion is being fuelled by AU$2.9 billion in committed projects, many of which have been brought forward thanks to high market prices. 

Key projects include De Grey Mining’s Hemi Gold Project, expected to produce 553,000 ounces annually by 2026, and McPhillamys in New South Wales, targeting 200,000 ounces per annum by 2028.  

As production scales up, so does the demand for skilled labour and infrastructure in mining regions. 

Workforce demand is rising across WA and NSW 

The gold boom is fuelling a surge in job creation across Australia’s mining states. The Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association (AREEA) 2025 to 2030 Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast projects that 96 mining and energy projects will create 22,279 new jobs by 2030, representing 7% workforce growth. Gold alone accounts for 16 of those projects, set to come online between 2026 and 2028. 

Western Australia is leading the expansion. The state has 27 new projects requiring 9,000 workers, including 11 gold-focused developments. Among them, the Hemi Gold Project is expected to create 1,700 jobs during construction and operations, according to Minister for Resources Madeleine King. 

In 2024, WA’s gold mining workforce grew by approximately 3,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) positions that reached 33,285 total FTEs. This brought total mining employment in the state to a record 135,693 FTEs, with gold now representing around a quarter of the sector. 

New South Wales is also gaining momentum. The state has 11 active projects projected to require 3,200 workers by 2026. Gold production in NSW was valued at AU$4.2 billion in 2024-25, supporting local economies, strengthening infrastructure, and attracting further regional investment. 

Favourable exchange rates are amplifying these returns further. 

Australia’s gold sector is entering a new high-price cycle

The surge in gold prices, exceeding US$4,000 per ounce in October 2025, marks the onset of a transformative high-price cycle for Australia’s gold sector, positioning it as a cornerstone of economic resilience.  

Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and trade disputes, coupled with persistent inflation fears, are driving robust demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. This confluence of factors not only elevates gold’s value but also underscores its role as a hedge against economic volatility, offering Australia a unique opportunity to capitalize on its position as the world’s third-largest gold producer.  

However, the sector must navigate potential price volatility to sustain long-term growth, requiring strategic foresight to balance investment in new projects with cost discipline. 

Despite this volatility, precious metals, particularly gold, remain pivotal to Australia’s export value, contributing AU$60 billion in 2025-26, as noted in the Resources and Energy Quarterly: September 2025, reinforcing their strategic importance to the national economy. 

This momentum is building a platform for long-term growth. 

Key outcomes expected by 2026 

By 2026, the impacts of sustained high gold prices are expected to be significant: 

• Profitability: With gold forecast to range from US$4,000 to US$5,055 per ounce, miners are achieving margins of AU$4,300 per ounce. Companies like Regis Resources have strengthened their positions, turning net-debt into over AU$517 million in cash and bullion. 

• Export Revenue: Gold export earnings are projected to reach between AU$35 billion and AU$60 billion in 2025–26. This growth is driven by high prices and a projected 0.5% increase in export volumes, contributing around 0.5% to nominal GDP. 

• Production Growth: National output is forecast to rise from 289 tonnes in 2024 to 309 tonnes in 2025–26, with longer-term targets of 400 tonnes by 2030. Major projects like Hemi and McPhillamys are driving this growth. 

• Employment: Workforce demand is rising, with 96 new resources projects expected to add over 22,000 jobs by 2030. WA alone added 3,000 FTE gold mining jobs in 2024, reaching 33,285. 

• Currency Advantage: With the Australian dollar projected at US$0.665, local gold revenues are seeing a 15-20% uplift in AUD terms, supporting stronger cash positions. 

• Risks: Sustained high costs (AISC reaching US$1,456/oz), price corrections, and investment discipline will remain key pressure points for the sector’s long-term success. 

Miners are positioned for growth, but discipline is critical 

The opportunity is clear. Miners who act deliberately in this cycle will strengthen cash flows, scale operations, and sharpen their competitive edge. But the risks are real. Overextension, reactive spending, or underestimating inflation could erode long-term value. 

To capitalise effectively, miners must focus on four priorities: 

1. Operational control – Streamline cost structures. Reduce exposure to wage and energy volatility. Adopt modular designs and flexible planning.
2. Capital discipline – Invest in high-return, low-risk projects. Avoid speculative acquisitions. Allocate cash based on long-term margin potential.
3. Workforce capability – Secure skilled labour through upskilling and regional engagement. Minimise downtime with retention and training programs. 
4. Technology integration – Use AI, automation, and data to improve exploration, reduce waste, and boost output efficiency. 

These levers will define who thrives and who stalls. Partnering with the right team who understands operational risk, performance delivery, and future-focused innovation can accelerate that advantage. This is a pivotal moment for gold. The best miners will lead with discipline, agility, and a performance mindset.